Governments have no answer (yet) to the biggest speculative bubble in history? | 8 May
BTC Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Price Risk Analysis
(Previous week in brackets)
|Trend||↑ (↑)||↓ (↓)||↑ (↑)|
|86 (86)||73 (72)||83 (70)|
|Allocation Limit(0%)||Invested||0% (0%)|
8 May: This past week we continued to notice the swap from BTC to ETH, at least it looks like this is what's beeen going on for 2 weeks now as BTC always took a dive followed by an Ethereum up and hold move. As clearly profits have soared for many participants during the past 6 months, it will become ever riskier for every day traders and new investors to hold any fresh positions entered at these elevated levels. The market is controlled by a small group of major early (enough) investors which increases the speculative risk for most. Unlike what some are saying though, Crypto does respond well to our short term 'one hourly', '4 hourly' and 'daily' technical indicators and almost always if divergence conditions are met. That is a positive take from possibly building a small diversified crypto portolio away from our core BEST position. High volatility and high trading risk however in most of these tokens keeps us away from the major crypto currencies that have no proven long term Beta economic relationship. No Change.
1 May: BTC April month end was the first down close in 7 months with a narrow margin of just $1,130 between op and closing price. The 25 largest crypto coins by market cap increased 20% in value last week. Starting May 1, Bitcoin monthly risk weight has turned back up in a potential danger zone as the previous risk weight peak was reached in January at $42,000.
End of April was also dominated by strong pro and con crypto comments including repeated accusations of scam and ponzi. That is nonsense of course as most known and highly active crypto coins are native to strongly developing fintech corporations. However, there is arguably a short term overvaluation of those native coins driven by a massive amount of hard talk in favor of staying on 'hodl'. The crypto influencers and very early adopters of the same now seek to protect what was set in motion, successfully, with Bitcoin 10 years ago. Millions of first time investors have come into this market the past 6 months with a 'sky is the limit' experience. The technical picture today is cause for prudence. This means, since all crypto markets have delivered massive returns into April 2021, taking profits on between 3 (low price entry) and 25% (high price entry) depending on entry level. As we suggested 2 weeks ago after the first large 20% drop, Ethereum may have been the prime beneficiary from a swap out of BTC. Given the high risk weight peak 2 months ago, a >30% correction could easily play out. During the past week we have released 4% of the crypto portfolio to limit investor risk to opportunity loss only. The balance can now be used to further advance the broader portfolio by applying our low risk technical analysis based management approach. We may increase our precious metals portfolio on a breakout or deep risk weight. Our core portolio of BEST therefore remains largely unchanged.
Bitpanda Pro - BEST Token Price Risk Analysis
(Previous week in brackets)
|Bitpanda - BEST/EUR||Monthly||Weekly||Daily|
|Trend||↓ (↓)||↓ (↑)||↑ (↓)|
|77 (78)||78 (82)||17 (55)|
|Allocation Limit(variable)||Invested||100% (100%)|
BEST token live price
Bitpanda BEST analysis 8 May
BEST lost 10% during from Saturday May 1st to Saturday May 8th close. Significant enough to consider how to design long term protection of the core position. BEST is still over double the value increase versus BTC since December. BEST token Daily risk weight is currently diverging for an upward correction versus weekly and monthly although we see a 4 hourly risk weight that puts resistance to a move. BEST actually looks firmer against Bitcoin than against Euro or dollar. This means that the crypto space as a whole is probably in a higher risk condition. BEST could easily get a further setback with this short term technical scenario but we consider this an opportunity to slightly improve the original investment level if entry at a lower level can be achieved. The BEST market does not lend well for finding support levels for bottom picking as volume is unpredictable. BEST, just like Binance's BNB, offers strong reward benefits and remains full medium term hold.
1 May 2021:
The last week of April ended with a 5% lower price action for Bitpanda's native coin BEST. Partly a result from early adopter profit taking which started the previous week in a relatively low volume market. The Bitpanda broker however appears to be managing this well by actively and smartly (AI) offering a constant bid-ask spread. The broker margins have become steeper as a result of higher than average volumes. Last week we released a total of 4% of our 90% BEST and 10% other altcoin crypto portfolio to fully limit our original investment risk after the substantial increases since early December 2020. The portfolio can now be developed and somewhat diversified further based on short (Daily), medium (Weekly) and Long term (Monthly) risk weight analysis.
S&P, Stock Indices, Equities, High Risk, No Limits
S&P 500 Standard & Poor's 500 Price Risk Analysis Forecast
(Previous week in brackets)
|Standard & Poor 500||Monthly||Weekly||Daily|
|Trend||↑ (↑)||↓ (↓)||↑ (↓)|
|99 (98)||96 (97)||70 (85)|
|Max Allocation 20% (20%)||Invested||0% (0%)|
07 May 2021 close: The minor correction last week followed by a stronger close is creating a lot of potential for bearish risk weight to price divergence in the Daily timeframe whilst weekly and monthly risk weight are at absolute extremes. It simply means very high risk for the S&P index and confirms our High Risk No Investment approach.
30 April 2021 close: Both Monthly and Weekly risk weight ended the month unchanged, both still in a narrow, almost neutral, downtrend with a high risk weight percentage. Daily risk turned back up to develop a bearish divergence downtrend picture, which is of course 'deja vue' and determines our low risk investment approach to equities. This technical picture is seen across the entire spectrum of stock indices. No Change.
Brent Crude oil Brent Crude Oil Price Risk Analysis Forecast
(Previous in brackets)
|Trend||↑ (↑)||↑ (↑)||↓ (↓)|
|89 (83)||71 (68)||75 (78)|
|Allocation Limit(10%)||Invested||0% (0%)|
7 May 2021 close: Strong performance mid week followed by a correction towards the weekend. All technical tools remain in higher risk positions with bearish divergence potential in all short to long term time scales. Crude remains too speculative as an investment under hard to predict medium term economic conditions with bubbles in almost every financial asset class. We don't do Copper but follow it with interest and as mentioned before copper could double again this year as it did last year o the back of very strong EV developments. No Change.
30 April 2021 close: Brent crude Bearish risk divergence within the Daily time frame is always a reason for being cautious. Within our Low risk long only investment approach it may take a very long time to develop a serious position. Same with Equities and any other investment for that matter. Cash has only been a necessary unavoidable risk alternative which we have managed to transfer into PM at favourable levels a few years ago that now offer an important cushion as both an inflation hedge or a potentially worse global monetary situation. Something smells very tricky in the entire financial industry. We can only hope to have done the right thing to protect our investor assets and be extremely cautious with higher risk investments that not offer a clear purchase signal with a decent chance of success.
Brent is no different and after having had a false interpretation experience last year, this commodity could be anywhere at the end of 2021. Our choice would probably be copper still but we do not trade non precious or a highly commodity driven precious metal like Palladium. No Change on Brent crude oil.