Gold can go down but shouldn't anymore | 28 May 2021
Gold Price Forecast relative to
Long Term Monthly (LT-M) - Medium Term Weekly (MT-W) - Short Term Daily (ST-D) - and Hourly (not shown) data.
(Previous week in brackets)
|1902 (1880) (unch)
|Au Trend||↑ (↑)||↑ (↑)||↓ (↓)|
|Au % Risk
|51 (50)||90 (76)||88 (88)|
Portfolio allocation 50% (35%)
Physical Gold: Nature's currency
28 May close: The Inflation narrative is getting stronger from many influencer corners. Gold historically gets most of the attention in this scenario and has held up better than Silver and Platinum.
The long term channel uptrend appears solid with just limited price range risk with most likely breakout towards current channel resistance at $2500.
Daily risk turned up and down again and rests at same 88% level with weekly strongly up and monthly risk now determined to follow that uptrend. What we'd be looking for in this technical scenario is for weekly to develop bearish divergence over a period of 4 to 6 weeks coupled with a fairly sizaeable price advance. As we have not really yet seen that bearish risk weight to price divergence, which should also become a feature of the long term risk weight (monthly) trend, gold most likely will continue to develop a strong positive price trend in coming months with the odd (stronger) interim correction as a result of central banks loosening inflation control and keeping rates low. No Change.
21 May close: Due to the large correction in our crypto portfolio (see crypto blog), the precious metals portfolio increased to 50%. This, again and again and again, shows the importance of owning precious metals to protect. Daily risk turned down on Friday but is not finished on the upside. A more extreme risk percentage is required preferably with a bearish divergence reading. Medium and Long term are still very bullish readings as we have yet to witness a hard technical longer term cycle top approaching. Not yet seen since the Dec 2015 bottom. A very strategic hold and 50% metals with other major asset classes in high risk mode is comfort.
We really wonder why Gold needs to prove itself everytime its under pressure and fast asset appreciation greed takes over mindset. Right now, 50% protection is a steal whilst stocks and crypto are potential bonusses as they resume their uptrends again.