The longer Platinum stays weak, the more bullish we should be | 4 September, 2020
Platinum Price Forecast relative to
Long Term Monthly (LT-M) – Medium Term Weekly (MT-W) – Short Term Daily (ST-D) – and Hourly (not shown) data
(Previous week in brackets)
|PT Trend||↑ (↑)||↓ (↓)||↓ (↑)|
|Pt % Risk
|70 (63)||63 (69)||25 (34)|
|Allocation||Pt:20% Ag:45% Au:35% (Total 100%)|
Platinum/USD live price
4 September:: Last week we split our PM forecast blog into three separate metal sections Gold, Silver and Platinum. The Silver and Platinum sections also resp. show the Gold/Silver and Gold/Platinum ratio analysis.
Buy when markets are soft. This is the picture for Platinum and has been so for a while. Whilst the new Month is pushing the Monthly risk weight into higher risk, it has some way to go and nowhere near an overbought condition. The long term downtrend that started in 2007 has been narrowly broken and our next target is a clear break of 1040 in order to fly into clear air towards Pt = Gold. No Change.
28 August:: Platinum is more rare than gold, it is heavier than gold, it has strong industrial use and the price has dropped versus gold since June 2008. Ever since Au/Pt ratio rose above 1.15 in December 2015, currently at 2.12, we have been wondering why this most exclusive metal in the hard asset space has been under such pressure. Limited liquidity at some point will drive up the price very quickly as we know from history. South African miners appear to be even closing down Platinum production and selling above ground stocks. This keeps a lid on prices and very much look like a Gordon Brown type action to stay afloat. There is a lot more to say, but the bottom line in the narrative is that Platinum is simply dirt cheap and is likely to develop a massive correction to rediscover that historic equilibrium above 1.00 versus gold. The images of the daily through quarterly Au/Pt ratio below tell the technical story. They all show the kind of divergences within their own time frames and against the other time frames. We only started to allocate some gold and additional funds to Platinum in July and look to hold until this market takes off. The technicals are ready for it and espcially the long term risk weight looks very positive to hold this position and be patient. On a break of the next first resistance at $1040 we are likely to add and increase our total allocation to precious metals.
Non-USA private investors best open an account at Bitpanda where you can buy Platinum which is 100% backed by physical stored in Switzerland and Austria. Unfortunately Bitpanda does not yet allow US customers top open an account. That moment will come and will accelerate the value of this regulated exchange and the value of BEST tokens.
No change to holding our current maximum allocation to Platinum.
As said: “PT needs a move above 1040 to trigger the expected rally to equilibrium or at least towards $1925. Patience will be rewarded”
GOLD/PLATINUM Ratio Price Risk Analysis
(Previous week in brackets)
|Trend||↑ (↓)||↑ (↓)||↓ (↑)|
|65 (63)||77 (71)||79 (88)|
|Allocation||>Pt:20% Ag:45% Au:35% (Total 100%)|