covering USD Index, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, GBP/EUR, USD/JPY
(Previous update in brackets)
|Trend||↓ (↓)||↑ (↓)||↑ (↓)|
|13 (17)||16 (15)||60 (12)|
11 June 2021 close: For two months the US dollar has remained fairly quiet and in a narrow range 2% range. Silence before a storm?
The broad analysis, which applies to all major USD pairs, is that no major trend bottom has materialized to date short term bottoming action as we see in today's chart comes and goes, but we should start to see a deeper bottom risk weight level followed by bullish divergence in weekly and monthly time scales. This is what can be expected and what we should wait for. The USD therefor remains a higher risk currency at this moment and diversification and hedge operations should take this risk into consideration. There was a Biden effect, it seems, on Thursday and Friday as the dollar gained ground against most majors and this short term correction may continue for a little while longer. No Change to the general outlook which is for a substantially weaker dollar.
21 May 2021: The Greenback remains under pressure and whilst all times scales are showing lower risk weight, this typically is early build up for a string of bearish divergence indications along the way until a long term time scale bottoms. In today's fragile world economy of things, it is a harder prediction to make. It seems the pressure is on and here to stay. The 88.25 Q4 2017 low needs to be broken on a month end close basis for confirmation.