USDollar rally slows down | 24 September 2021

US$ Index

covering USD Index, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, GBP/EUR, USD/JPY

(Previous update in brackets)

USD Index Monthly Weekly Daily
93.28 (93.25)
Trend ↑ (↑) ↑ (↑) ↓ (↑)
% Risk
Weight
42 (42) 75 (72) 82 (68)
Allocation 70% (70%)

$Index chart

 


Analysis

24 September 2021 close: The US dollar index is the value of the USD against the follwing basket of major currencies:
Euro (EUR) 57.6%
Yen (JPY) 13.6%
British pound (GBP) 11.9%
Canadian dollar (CAD) 9.1%
Swedish krona (SEK) 4.2%
Swiss franc (CHF) 3.6%
The index appears to be slowing down evidenced by a higher risk reading on both Daily and Weekly timescales with a possible bearish divergence developing in the latter. Our long term initial target of 80 still stands hence the recommended 70% perpetual hedge on dollar receivables.

17 September 2021 close: The continued dollar challenge upward this week is causing uncertainty on our side as to the medium term direction. Even though we do not see the logic of a strong dollar against a backdrop of Chinese and Russian alternative asset accumulation and the discriminate Wall Street favoured monetary financing, the medium term outllook admittedly eyes a little stronger.
We may decide to limit our hedge to 50% but will wait for both hourly and 4 hourly risk to move from a present very high risk position to a possible buy signal in the next couple of days. The outlook isn't conclusive at all, hence no change for now.

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Posted in A - All Financial Blogs | 2021 Forecast, FX - USD Index, EUR, GBP, YEN | EYEFORGOLD.

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