covering USD Index, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, GBP/EUR, USD/JPY
(Previous update in brackets)
|Trend||↑ (↑)||↑ (↑)||↓ (↑)|
|42 (42)||75 (72)||82 (68)|
24 September 2021 close: The US dollar index is the value of the USD against the follwing basket of major currencies:
Euro (EUR) 57.6%
Yen (JPY) 13.6%
British pound (GBP) 11.9%
Canadian dollar (CAD) 9.1%
Swedish krona (SEK) 4.2%
Swiss franc (CHF) 3.6%
The index appears to be slowing down evidenced by a higher risk reading on both Daily and Weekly timescales with a possible bearish divergence developing in the latter. Our long term initial target of 80 still stands hence the recommended 70% perpetual hedge on dollar receivables.
17 September 2021 close: The continued dollar challenge upward this week is causing uncertainty on our side as to the medium term direction. Even though we do not see the logic of a strong dollar against a backdrop of Chinese and Russian alternative asset accumulation and the discriminate Wall Street favoured monetary financing, the medium term outllook admittedly eyes a little stronger.
We may decide to limit our hedge to 50% but will wait for both hourly and 4 hourly risk to move from a present very high risk position to a possible buy signal in the next couple of days. The outlook isn't conclusive at all, hence no change for now.