Crypto correction may be over, and then it may NOT be | 11 June
BTC Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Price Risk Analysis
(Previous week in brackets)
|Trend||↓ (↓ )||↓ (↓)||↑ (↓)|
|70 (70)||17 (21)||63 (50)|
|Allocation Limit(0%)||Invested||0% (0%)|
12 June close: As we can see clearly on the daily Bitcoin chart, a wedge formation is developing since 19 May with an apex pointing towards July 13/14 at this moment. Because this consolidation is now part of at least an intermediate level downtrend, your greater risk is for a breakout to the downside withina week's time or so. If that breakout comes the apex location may be close to a bottom. The Monthly long term risk chart remains bearish whilst eekly Medium term still needs to produce a proper indication of an ending larger correction. It is entirely possible that BTC has run its course, for now, from $64,829 on Febr 21 to $29,904 on May 19, but risk is not finished and anything between now and a final confirmation is high risk. Especially for weaker hands who invariably are crushed under the weight of early investor whales that have fully secured portfolio's with a free ride. And by the way, Micro Strategy's Michael Taylor and Tesla's Elon Musk have secured wealth through other smart channels, but their positions too are at high risk in the current climate. Awareness of this risk makes for a more solid less volatile portfolio approach. The entire crypto space actually looks quite similar from a technical perspective. No Change to no investment in BTC.
05 June close: El Salvador announced at the 2021 Miami Bitcoin conference on Saturday 5 June to make Bitcoin Legal tender. Various media reported this and suggested that BTC should have immediately gained in price, but it didn't because Elon Musk's one but latest tweet had a bigger negative weight on the market. This whole circus makes us wonder what the majority of investors are trying to achieve other than achieving fast opportunity profits. Great if you're in it early, but it is soooo speculative. There are different ways to observe technical risk weight and as regards Bitcoin all time scales are in a down trend today. Looking at quarterly risk in the below quarterly close BTC risk chart and how this asset behaved following peak risk weight in the past, this is simply a high risk profile and could be for 6 or 9 months at least. As the longer term downtrend are well underway, there is less change of short versus long bullish divergence. The stock approach for positioning would now to be to wait for at least the Medium term Weekly to produce bullish divergence in its own timeframe. The other 'old saying' is to never add to a losing position. This goes against the story now told by many influencers, but it has historically been the better protective trading strategy. Losing a higher risk opportunity has generally been the better draw. No Change.
Bitpanda Pro - BEST Token Price Risk Analysis
(Previous week in brackets)
|Bitpanda - BEST/EUR||Monthly||Weekly||Daily|
|Trend||↓ (↓)||↓ (↓)||↑ (↑)|
|60 (60)||28 (30)||14 (45)|
|Allocation Limit(variable)||Invested||100% (100%)|
BEST token live price
Bitpanda BEST analysis 12 June
Our strategy has been to reduce all of the risk in this core holding by securing enough profit and also selling several months of rewards forward. BEST however is still strong by any standard but also disappointing with a 60% drop from the high. Frankly we could see the entire crypto market drop another 40% or more as market manipulation in this unregulated space is proving extremely profitable.
BEST has suffered from growth pains, as had most exchanges, accompanied by much weaker client service and lack of 'good news'. Maximising human resource in every direction is almost always an issue for fast growing high tech companies. We would hope to see the introduction of a token launch platform which was earlier communicated as part of the underlying growth model for the Bitpanda exchange. Their digital platform however works like a dream and has a very high quality feel. The company is extremely well capitalized and deserves credit from their account holders. The crypto market is far from perfect partly due to a lack of arbitrage opportunities operated from a single platform. This would resolve some of the poor liquidity of many smaller and even larger market cap tokens. Cross blockchain operations of any kind will become a stock odel as several major IT dvelopment companies, including Bitpanda are working on it.
Otherwise no Change to our core holding which now represents 35% of total. BEST is still up 1,100% since its introduction in 2019 and we would expect that any further decline to be greeted by positive news about Bitpanda developments and possible new exchange features that benefit BEST vip clients.
05 June 2021: Having reduced our position marginally at higher levels we have decicded to stick with the strategy of claiming monthly rewards and keep the position. This asset too looks vulnerable as do most crypto's as they initially appear to be following BTC's lead almost every time. Just like two years when we started crypto, this is a reasoned long term hold. No Change.
S&P, Stock Indices, Equities, High Risk, No Limits
S&P 500 Standard & Poor's 500 Price Risk Analysis Forecast
(Previous week in brackets)
|Standard & Poor 500||Monthly||Weekly||Daily|
|Trend||↓ (↓)||↑ (↑)||↓ (↑)|
|98 (98)||93 (90)||90 (85)|
|Max Allocation 20% (20%)||Invested||0% (0%)|
11 June 2021 close: The S&P 500 index has again made new high, although the trend is shallowing. In spite of parabolic advances in the past this market seems to be losing interest due to lower volatility and high risk perception. We just wonder how many investors have managed to stay with the uptrend trend that started in March of 2020. This market remains technically high risk and must not therefore be part of a wealth protection portfolio. Maybe day-trading with a vigilant stop loss policy, but hardly worth the trouble. No Change.
04 June 2021 close: S&P 500 simply remains high risk in all time frames. It is just a matter of insider knowledge that the near zero interest rate window is closing. That should finally trigger the biggest consecutive series of down days ever. Opportunity lost for sure, but better safe than sorry. No Change.