What if a PE ratio hits ONE THOUSAND | 20 November close

S&P 500 Weekly Standard & Poor’s 500 Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

Standard & Poor 500 LT-M MT-W ST-D
3548 (3586)
Trend ↓ (↓) ↑ (↑) ↓ (↑)
% Risk
Weight
86 (87) 70 (58) 75 (75)
Allocation Limit(30%) Invested 0% (0%)


20 November: As Tesla is likely to become a member of the S&P500 family of stocks the company with sign TSLA hit a PE ratio of 1000 and closed well above it on November 20, 2020. This performance is nothing short of amazing and makes economists around the globe wonder what they’re getting wrong. How many Dutch Tulip mania’s are we witnessing at this very moment or is this a new normal? With global debt load increasing close to 17 Trillion dollars in 2020, surely this mania cannot be a new normal. And all of that in a Corona driven highly insecure global economic environment. But of course, the vaccin will demolish any future negative influences and create a world with prosperity for all, enough housing with 30 year mortgages under 2% and a fully modernised infrastructure. Wouldn’t that be great.
We will stay away from all highly speculative markets until the world recognizes it needs to settle for calmer conditions to even have a future. The developing technical picture remains highly suspect which it has done now for 2 years. Our compensation with the present strategy is a serious but slightly smaller return on precious metals and almost everything else, except for a number of individual asset opportunities, is a bubble. Those bubbles are running out of oxygen at some point and we know what happens then. No Change.

13 November: The rationale for these strong markets is led by continued huge monetary support that is taking some of these major markets into hyperinflationary territory. Risk remains extremely high which is recognized by many if not most professional investors. Who exactly are leading the dance is hard to determine outside the inner circle, but it looks like the public including some institutional investors are driving the stock market to these extremes. Last weeks jump as a result of a ‘Democratic’ victory and a possioble vaccin coming early next year is really too simple for even the strongest fundamental analyst. We stay out of this market without feeling broken due to not meeting a speculative opportunity, but the technicals do not support that risk action.


Brent Crude oil Weekly Brent Crude Oil Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

Brent LT-M MT-W ST-D
45.03 (42.69)
Trend ↓ (↓) ↑ (↑) ↑ (↓)
% Risk
Weight
46 (46) 50 (33) 88 (80)
Allocation Limit(10%) Invested 0% (0%)


20 November: Oil was strong this past week as a result of serious hope for revival following the vaccin phase 3 Trial results. This market is not set up for longer term investment allocation and should only be traded very short term with small speculative bias and with minimum leverage. No allocation in our portfolio. No change.

13 November: The euphoria as a result of preceived positive economic news is understandable. This has filtered through to many markets including Oil, but nothing is certain and the strength last week is very short term emotion against long term uncertainty. We stay on the sidelines especially where stronger economic data is coming from a much lower base now and the real recovery still needs to be proven.

BTC Bitcoin Price, Weekly Bitcoin Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

BITCOIN BTC/USD LT-M MT-W ST-D
18500 (16000)
Trend ↑ (↑) ↑ (↑) ↑ (↑)
% Risk
Weight
89 (88) 93 (91) 92 (91)
Allocation Limit(0%) Invested 0% (0%)


22 November: The 80% Bitcoin price increase since mid September is nothing short of spectecular. The issue however is that BTC has become too much of a challenge for new investors, whilst retail investors are known to be slaughtered in highly speculative markets. BTC as a hard asset is still extremely difficult to understand for most people, ourselves included. We understand and read that some of Bitcoins ultimate opponents are now beginning to consider they might be wrong. Time for contrarian action? This is such a difficult call, but technically we can only see continued high risk, which indeed never means that markets cannot double again, and again. We have seen current levels before. In Mid Dec 2017 on the way up and down again. As risk weight resides in high risk territory any short term pullback can set up for another strong rally or be the trigger for a massive correction. We consider this market an edvery time asset bubble of higher degree which has become more accessible due to a universal technological revolution that has expandex exponentially in just ten years. The good thing is that we have invested in BEST tokens instead, representing the crypto revolution, but also a lot more than that. Crypto will surely be the future for many if not all asset classes and individual assets at that. But we stay out as we rightly or wrongly still believe in that 99% chance of filling all gaps. No Change.

14 November: As we follow the hype it is very clear that all of this advance is driven by the alternative media influencers. The reasoning for an alternative uninterventional asset makes perfect sense, but the manner and speed of price discovery does not. We certainly hope that everyone participating in this crazyness will profit and be properly protected at the end of this amazing crypto journey. Technically all time frames are still up in tue overbought ranges and it looks like short term this move is coming to an end, but it can also mean short term bullish divergence in the making again in a few weeks time. We hold on to our long term target of 2800 which we held ever since the market rallied to its 2017 peak. No change.


Bitpanda Pro – BEST Token Price Risk Analysis

(Previous week in brackets)

Bitpanda – BEST/EUR LT-M MT-W ST-D
0.0959 (0.0913)
Trend ↑ (↑) ↑ (↑) ↑ (↑)
% Risk
Weight
82 (80) 95 (88) 96 (85)
Allocation Limit(10%) Invested 100% (100%)

BEST token live price 24/7


Bitpanda BEST token

22 November: BEST tokens have performed strongly during the week (up 5%), possibly and likely helped by the advance in crypto currencies, BTC in particular. BEST at this moment on Nov 22 is making a new season high above 0,0950 which makes as much sense, more sense in our opinion, as Bitcoin. BEST represents a perpetual real value benefit for anyone trading an asset on the Bitpanda exchange. We particularly like the introduction of physical precious metals on the Bitpanda echange. All current and future Bitpanda account holders will benefit for owning BEST as it not only still trades below its intrinsic value, but offers real discount on trading commissions if paid with BEST as well as an actual yield in the process. This is quite a unique phenonemon even in today’s Fintech environment. It will not prevent the BEST token from trading well above its intrinsic value just like Bitcoin, any other crypto currency or equities like TSLA. Arguably BEST offers the same if not a better opportunity to increase anywhere between 3 and 50-fold. Or even become the ‘go to’ safehaven. Whatever the market wants to believe and offers a high enough level of trust becomes of microscopic interest.
Btes

14 November: The price of the BEST token is approaching the 0,0950 high reached back in April eating away a 6 month erosion by a few percentage points every week. BEST represents the importance of alternative low cost banking and trading in an increasing number of asset classes with transparent access for retail investors. Even though this very young asset is looking to get short term overbought, our long term hold stands firm as we follow the demise of traditional banking and commission driven analysts with interest.


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Posted in A - All Financial Blogs | 2020 Forecast, GLOBAL - S&P500 - OIL - CRYPTO | EYEFORGOLD.

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